Where's the Rest of Me?

So said Ronald Reagan as Drake McHugh in Kings Row, the 1942 flick that Reagan thought to be his best performance. That's what GOP leaders will be saying tomorrow morning as they awake to the biggest Democratic win since 1964. The polls all converged yesterday at McCain-Palin behind 7 points or so (or more) and his chances of winning can be estimated at 2%.

For those watching at home, Indiana closes early; with most of the state closing at 6 PM E.T. and the Democrat northwest corner at 7 P.M. If Indiana goes Democrat the race can be called for Obama-Biden right then and there; if Virginia, also closing at 7, goes Dem by more than a point or two the race will likwise be over. If these states are for McCain or close, attention will shift to the 7:30 closers, North Carolina and Ohio; McCain needs both. This race should be over by 8 P.M.

The real race tonight will be the Democrats' fight for a ‘supermajority', the 60 votes needed to break Republican filibuters. 60 isn't as much a magic number as some make out; there's no guarantee that Republicans like Arlin Specter, Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins will support GOP filibusters, nor that Democrats like Joe Lieberman and Ben Nelson will vote to break them. But it's an important symbol of Democrat ascendency. To get to 60 the Democrats will need to beat Coleman in Minnesota, a toss-up, and upset one of Mitch McConnell in Kentucky or Saxby Chambliss in Georgia, both early closing states.

To the crystal ball:

President

Obama-Biden 353, McCain-Palin 185

Obama-Biden 52%, McCain-Palin 46%, Oth 2%

Senate

Democrat +7

Close Races -- Dems NH (defeating Sununu), NC (defeating Dole), Oregon (defeating Smith), LA (Landrieu hold)
Reps MN (Coleman), KY (McConnell), GA (Chambliss, after runoff)

House

Dem +23

I've been on a roll on American predictions; in 2006 I had the House exactly right and missed only Virginia in the Senate; in 2004 I got every state right except Iowa, the closest in the nation. I'd say I hope I am wrong this year, except that if I am, it is more likely an Obama sweep, possibly approaching 400 electoral votes than a McCain win, and Dem Senate gains of 10 or so and 30 and more than what I have predicted.

Folks can take one day, Wednesday, to digest the results and mourn; Thursday starts the battle for the soul of American conservatism, likely to be both heart- wrenching and dirty.

"Alright. I know. I'm always wrong. I always have been, ever since I can remember." --as Drake McHugh in KINGS ROW (1942).