McCain Vs. Obama, Part One

9:06...Lehrer in the tank already as he ignores the supposed theme of the evening, foreign policy, and leads off with a "financial crisis" question...allowing Obama to advertise his love for the ordinary American, and an unaccustomed concern that taxpayers get value for what they are paying....I've switched from Fox to CNN, which all in all has a more interesting bunch of commentators. They have a neat Audience Reaction meter which tracks the approvan of Democrats, Independents and Republicans...McCain shows himself equally supple in reducing the crisis to the currentproblems of the ordinary person on Main St., which are apparently more important than the possibility of the world financial system collapsing.

9:12 Obama skilfully expounds on the question what he thinks of the bailout without even a pretense of answering it. McCain finds an excuse to tell the old Eisenhower two-letter story, about the letter Eisenhower wrote in advance of D-Day taking full responsibility for the its failure had it occurred, but he blows it, not giving enough detail for people who don't already know the story to understand what he's talking about. It's a very poignant story if you tell it right. He emphasizes that he warned of these disasters in advance, and his demand for future accountability. AR heads way up on "accountability". Survived that question well enough I think.

9:15 These "people who live on Main Street" must be living in indescribable misery. The whole brunt of this crisis seem to have fallen on them.... Both candidates look like they are wisely going to ignore Lehrer's questions entirely and make whatever points they had planned to no matter what the question is....Obama looks defensive on earmarks. He may be startled to find him being out-populisted by a Republican....McCain's arm motions look stiff and awkward. The Republicans need to make sure every voter knows that this is because of the injuries he suffered as a POW. Perhaps he could start appearing in braces slings and bandages....On CNN's audience meter, independent approval of McCain jumps as he talks about his vote against the bill festooned with benefits for oil companies....Obama is asked what he will give up in terms of spending, and ignores the question entirely, instead giving his laundry list of things on which there needs to be more spending. Oh I beg your pardon. He will end unspecified "programs that don't work"....Whoops there goes Iowa for good. McCain calls for ending ethanol subsidies again....Spending freeze? Where did that come from? Is McCain making policy on the fly again? There will be lots of opportunities for Democrats to hit McCain on that all campaign long. John McCain -- wants to freeze spending on preventing childhood deaths...Huge gap on the AR meter as McCain talks about not letting the federal government run health care. Independent line moving up, moving closer to the Republicans.

9:42 Now we get into the meat. What are the lessons of Iraq? Oh oh...independent reaction bad as McCain talks about Iraq. And the Independents like Obama talking about he was against the war from the start. If Obama mentions his plan to get out on a deadline, McCain's response could decide the campaign...McCain is strong in saying that what's important about Iraq are the decisions that will be made in the future, not those made in the past....Obama's now stressing his 16-month deadline. Audience reaction good from both parties. And it slumps when McCain responds by talking about the successes of General Petreaus. I have long thought that despite the recent successes in Iraq, McCain's refusal to provide a deadline for getting out could cost him the campaign.

9:56 McCain slaughters Obama on Pakistan. I just hope the people listening can understand that it's not a good idea to start invading friendly regimes whose problem is their difficulty of controlling thir anti-American elements...Is Obama being effective dwelling so long on McCain's supposed errors about Afghanistan? I'm not sure people are going to understand his argument, and if the audience can't really understand the nature of a disagreement between the two, their default position, in foreign affairs, will be that McCain is right.

10:06 On to Iran...McCain wants "no second Holocaust". That should help fundraising in New York City....McCain starting to tire around 10:12, starting to stumble a bit. Obama's defense of direct diplomacy may or may not sell completely, but he's succeeding in sounding presidential. The Dem Ind and Rep approval lines on the AR meter are running almost even.

10:22 Obama is trying to look restrained and thoughtful as McCain gives him Hell on Georgia, but to me he looks more like a chastened schoolboy. McCain now reenergized...powerfully conveying outrage at the naivete of Obama's views...Weird coincidence of the day. McCain and Obama argue about who knows the difference between "strategy" and tactics". You know who doesn't understand that difference? Me. I was looking at Wikipedia today to try to figure it out.

10:31 McCain not so dumb as to try to actually estimate the likelihood of another 9/11 attack. If you say "high" you encourage panic and suggest the Republicans haven't been dealing adequately with the danger; if you say "low" you suggest the government's domestic security meaures may be unduly harsh and that all the hullaballoo about security is unncecesary.

10:36 The debate is fading, and people are losing interest. Or maybe it's just me.

MY VERDICT: A narrow McCain win, with Obama able to be satisfied that he held his own in the debate on his weakest area. As Rich Lowry stated on NRO, McCain was the aggressor on foreign policy, but Obama counterpunched adequately enough.
The polls on this debate will be important though, because if either candidate has a small 5% advantage on the question "Who won?", the popular wisdom will become that that candidate won, and 2 weeks from now the notion that that guy won will become the overwhelming consensus.